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Nintendo has released what many analysts are describing as a “cautious” sales forecast for its upcoming Switch 2 console, citing ongoing concerns surrounding U.S. tariff policies and their potential impact on production and pricing. During its recent financial results announcement, Nintendo projected it will sell 15 million units of the Switch 2 and 45 million games during the current fiscal year ending March 31, 2026. The Switch 2 is scheduled to launch globally on June 5.
The company noted that its forecast assumes the continuation of the current U.S. tariff rates that took effect on April 10. However, Nintendo acknowledged that any changes in these tariffs could significantly affect its projections. In a statement, the company said, “We will continue to monitor the situation closely to respond effectively to any changes in market conditions.”
Daniel Ahmad, Director of Research & Insights at Niko Partners, described the 15 million unit forecast as “conservative,” suggesting that Nintendo is likely accounting for uncertainties related to tariffs, pricing, and manufacturing delays—despite strong early demand and positive pre-order momentum. Ahmad added that Nintendo might revise its forecast upward if the tariff situation improves. However, he emphasized that current supply chain disruptions and the looming possibility of increased tariffs pose significant challenges to the console’s successful global rollout.
It’s worth noting that achieving 15 million units sold in its first year would make the Switch 2 one of the most successful console launches in history—surpassing the original Switch's first-year sales of 14.87 million units.
See Results — Demand for the Switch 2 appears to be massive. After an initial delay attributed to tariff-related logistics, pre-orders officially launched on April 24 with the console price locked in at $449.99—and consumer response was largely as expected: overwhelming. Meanwhile, Nintendo issued a heads-up to U.S. customers who placed pre-orders through the My Nintendo Store, cautioning that delivery by the release date cannot be guaranteed due to exceptionally high demand.
For more details, check out IGN’s Nintendo Switch 2 pre-order guide.
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